Crunching the Numbers in Alaska.

6 11 2008

OK…

I’m not generally a conspiracy theorist. I say “generally”, because sometimes conspiracies happen. And sometimes it would be foolish to ignore them. The only thing worse than being labeled a conspiracy theorist, is being labeled a gullible idiot when it all comes to light. So I invite you to hop on board the Conspiracy Theory Express with me for a moment, because it’s pulling out of the station here in Alaska, ready to take you on a five minute tour.

As the final numbers roll in from state and national elections, I and others have noticed some results that are interesting at best, and highly suspect at worst. Either way, they deserve some scrutiny.

Let’s look at the national numbers first. Keep in mind that Alaska’s very own Governor, and the new GOP golden girl, Sarah Palin, was on the ticket. And Barack Obama has excited progressive Alaskans like no candidate before. He had five field offices, great ground organization, and inspired the biggest candidate rally in Alaska history. Voter turnout here was expected to be through the roof and breaking all records.

In 2004, 66% of registered voters turned out to vote in the presidential election between George Bush and John Kerry.

In 2008, including the votes still outstanding, only 54% of registered voters turned out.

And the strangest part of all? Voter turnout in the primaries, before Palin was even on the ticket, was up 12% from 2004. We also had more than 20,000 new registered voters.

Curious.

As these strange numbers rolled in at Election Central, I was there watching. Here’s how it fell out over time.

With 36% of the precincts reporting:
61.76% for McCain
35.64% for Obama

With 81.3% reporting
61.54% for McCain
35.69% for Obama

With 96.1% reporting
61.29% for McCain
35.96% for Obama

Alaska, like many states, has blue areas and red areas. The Mat-Su Valley, home of Sarah Palin is very very red. Anchorage? Blue. The Kenai Peninsula? Red. Juneau? Blue. You get the idea. When I, and my fellow progressive celebrants watched the first numbers come in, we thought, “That must be the Valley”, because the latest polls actually had the presidential race neck and neck with Obama only 2.7 points behind. We kept waiting for the progressive areas of the state to kick in, but they never did. No fluctuations one way or the other more than .3%. And George Bush won the 2004 election her by a margin of…..61-35.

Strange.

Then, we’ve got the two Congressional races.

Ted Stevens vs. Mark Begich. The convicted felon is currently ahead by about 3300 votes, with about 60,000 absentee and early votes left to count. It’s a squeaker, and Begich may pull this one off. By why is it a squeaker when the last poll had Begich 22 points ahead? He’d been running at a dead heat in the polling before Ted’s conviction, but after the seven felony convictions came in, Begich’s lead widened considerably. Pretty stunning turnaround for Stevens.

Remarkable.

How about Ethan Berkowitz vs. Don Young for the Congressional seat?

Berkowitz consistently led Young in every single poll since May by 5-14 points. Contrary to this comfortable and consistent lead, Don Young managed to pull off a stunning upset by trouncing Berkowitz by more than 7 points.

Amazing.

And since history is always our best teacher, let’s look back at the 2004 elections in Alaska. The majority of precincts had voter turnout of over 100%. In some cases, voter turnout was over 200%. Either Alaskans are enthusiastic about their vote to the point of breaking the law and voting twice, or there’s something very very wrong.

(From Shannyn Moore) There are 40 districts in Alaska. The Anchorage area districts run from District 17 to District 32. Scroll down to the bottom of the page and pick any district from 17-32. Pay particular attention to the 3rd column labeled % turnout. Hit the back arrow and select another district. There are more precincts with voter turnout over 100% than under 100%. In other words, many more people voted in Anchorage area precincts than there were registered voters. Clearly, this is not possible. In 2006, the Democrats filed a lawsuit against the Alaska Division of Elections to release public records needed to verify the 2004 election results. The Democrats ALSO sought to have the Alaska Division of Elections release the raw election data for the 2006 election.

It’s been more than 24 hours since the polls closed in Alaska, and the red flags are already waving.

OK, the Conspiracy Theory Express bus 5-minute tour is over, and you may now hop off. This was just a test drive. Keep your eyes on how the final numbers turn out. Democracy requires vigilance, and hopefully our state candidates will not be afraid to stand their ground. The Obama campaign had a team of lawyers at the ready in case election fraud was detected. It’s a wise precaution, and an obligation to the electorate whose fundamental rights hang in the balance. If I were Ethan Berkowitz or Mark Begich or Barack Obama, I’d make sure I took the process to the end, and took advantage of the media spotlight which still shines on our state, before it vanishes, and we are left to sort out our election questions in the dark. Sunshine is the best disinfectant.

UPDATE – Here’s some new coverage on this topic from The Washington Post and from 538.com.

Add to FacebookAdd to DiggAdd to Del.icio.usAdd to StumbleuponAdd to RedditAdd to BlinklistAdd to Ma.gnoliaAdd to TechnoratiAdd to FurlAdd to Newsvine

About these ads

Actions

Information

156 responses

6 11 2008
fawnskin hussein mudpuppy

oh, shhheeeshhhh….first again. i need a life

6 11 2008
Road Runner

second

6 11 2008
Ennealogic

Thank you for addressing this… it’s been bugging me for two days! Let’s dig in and find out what is really going on with the count.

6 11 2008
Goalie Sanka Palin in NM

Been gone all day and trying to catch up. AKM!! you have been busy (and standing out in the cold too much…brrrr!!)

6 11 2008
Road Runner

WOW, The Dems better stay on top of this.

6 11 2008
Scott Palin

So, just wondered what if felt like to be in the “top 10″

Seems like there is a lot to keep us up-to-date on!

6 11 2008
nunya

Bet your bip it’s strange, Brad thinks so too:

Blogged by Shannyn Moore on 11/6/2008 1:18PM
SOMETHING SMELLS VERY FISHY IN ALASKA
Turnout Rate Reported as Lowest Ever in State, Down 11% From ’04 Even With Both Palin and Obama on the Ballot
Hanging in the Balance in the Diebold State: Felon Ted Stevens’ U.S. Senate Race, Corrupt Don Young’s House Race & Much More…
Guest blogged by Shannyn Moore

6 11 2008
fawnskin hussein mudpuppy

i, for one, really really need for you vigilant alaskans to remedy any voter fraud.

a major reason that i went from california to ohio to work the election (see my post in prior thread) was because of my dismay at the shenanigans in ohio in ’04. i had to be a part of the team to make sure that didn’t happen again in that state.
now you guys make sure it doesn’t happen there.

6 11 2008
Ennealogic

One more thing… don’t be afraid of the “tin-foil-hat” charge. It is no more valid than the “pallin’ around with terrorists” charge, or the “secret Muslim” charge or the “Obama will take your money and give it to all those worthless blacks” charge.

If you are branded by anyone, given the facts we can see here, a “conspiracy theorist,” rest assured you are on to something.

We used to be asleep and dumb. But we woke up and now have eyes to see.

6 11 2008
futurexpat?

I just read Shannyn Moore’s article. This sounds really bad, or as she says it stinks. Those numbers don’t sound right at all.

6 11 2008
Ennealogic

Fawnskin, I loved your story in the last thread.

But there is a BIG difference between voter fraud and election fraud.

Voter fraud is virtually non-existant… where people who should not vote or who have already voted, vote.

Election fraud may well be widespread and I think we have substantial evidence that we were defrauded both in 2000 and 2004. Remember — it’s not who votes that counts, it’s who counts the votes.

6 11 2008
Scott Palin

- thought I’d pass this along –

Sarah Palin’s Clothes: GOP Lawyer Dispatched To Alaska To Retrieve Some

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/06/gop-lawyer-dispatched-to_n_141897.html

6 11 2008
Erin

So, who exactly is “in charge” of sorting this mess out? Someone needs to step up and start an investigation. Pronto.

6 11 2008
Deep Blue in VA

Nate Silver at 538 is on this too. I just hope some Obama lawyers get on the scene!

6 11 2008
ShibbyAK

Long time lurker, first time poster. Hi all.

My wife and I both had problems with our village’s new Diebold touchscreen machines out here near Bethel…we both double-checked to make sure everything registered correctly on the screen and on the paper “receipt” before casting our ballots, but the machine was definitely acting screwy, rejecting clicks on the “Next” button, printer paper jamming, etc.

I just don’t know what to think after looking at the raw results so far. I knew my vote for Obama wouldn’t matter much in AK this season, but I sure hope my votes for Begich and Berkowitz got counted correctly…

On a fun note, I have it all on tape (yes, I read over state law first to make sure it was ok), on account of this being our 6 month old’s first election and wanting to document the historic occasion.

If you videotaped your vote on the machine, and documented the problems, PLEASE upload your video on http://videothevote.org/ Thanks! AKM

6 11 2008
UK Lady Turning Turtle Annette AKA UK Lady

Very fishy.

Something that is worrying me is that I am sure I read somewhere that the Governor of Alsaka is responsible for any voting decisions re: irregularities etc., and that SP said she was getting right back to work on Thursday – talk me down as you all say in the US. AKM?

It’s actually the Lieutenant Governor, Sean Parnell. Guess I didn’t talk you down much…. AKM

6 11 2008
katiebegood

I hope that someone demands an investigation. There is way too much that is hinky about this.

Apparently most of the machines used in Alaska are easily hackable Dibold machines.

AKM – Do you vote solely on a voting machine or do you vote on paper that is then scanned? Is there a paper backup for every vote?

My polling place has an optical scanner with a paper ballot. Other areas in the state have touch screen machines. The 2004 vote showed problems with the central tabulator data file. AKM

6 11 2008
formerAKperson

I urge Alaskans to, please, put her out of our misery. Please.

By whatever means necesssary.

6 11 2008
katiebegood

fawnskin hussein mudpuppy (13:26:15) :

i, for one, really really need for you vigilant alaskans to remedy any voter fraud.

I really do wish that people would stop doing that. This is NOT “voter fraud”, it is ELECTION FRAUD. Voter fraud is when some votes who is not eligible. Election fraud is when there is voter intimidation, disenfranchisement and messing with vote counts. It is a very important distinction.

6 11 2008
fawnskin hussein mudpuppy

sorry, ennealogic…of course, i meant election fraud. same thing happened in ohio, and where i was posted in las vegas in 2004.

i am just exhausted and should stop posting.

6 11 2008
Cindy

@katiebegood – At least in Anchorage, we vote on the ScanTron-style ballots where you bubble-in your choices, then feed the paper ballot into a scanning machine.

Or, for those of us who voted early, bubble-in our choices, then drop the ballot into a box to be “counted later.”

6 11 2008
katiebegood

I’m sorry if I sounded cranky about the “voter fraud” misuse. It’s just one of my pet peeves. The other is when people call us the “Democrat” party. The Republicans have been doing it so long I now notice Democrats doing it.

6 11 2008
CO Almost Native

Although these events aren’t all happening in Alaska, they definitely qualify for either AKM’s new license plate(Alaska…we don’t make this stuff up) or the Twilight Zone:

1. Sarah Palin: some small, bitter person told the story I didn’t know Africa is a continent (huffpo- CB doesn’t deny the story)

2. Lieberman wants to keep his Senate committee chairmanship and is exploring his options

3. Michele Bachmann is supporting Obama
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15378.html

Maybe the Twilight Zone…

6 11 2008
pvazwindy

Is the Obama team of lawyers still there?

There were never any Obama team of lawyers here. It was a national effort. AKM

6 11 2008
Dazzler

Me thinks some blue ballots must’ve been thrown off that Bridge to Nowhere….

6 11 2008
shikago

I can only do so much. But I promise you, I am going to continue to support AKM and Mudflats and our missions wherever they take us. As soon as I can I am going to donate to AKM for a fantastic job well done.

I posted the following on the last thread but thought I would post it again for those that may have missed it.
———-
Greetings all. Finally recovering from the late hours this past week. I was at the Obama Victory Rally at Grant Park. Didn’t get home until almost 2am. Spent most of yesterday sleeping. I sat up last night till O’Dark 30 this morning drafting my report & photos, I hope AKM shares with everyone. I situated myself at a place called Mudflats Point at the Northern Part of Grant Park.

I need to catch up on some chores, and the mess I created working on Mudstock II. It has been a week I will never forget.

Oh, I have dropped the name Hussein out of respect for our new President Elect and I feel our mission to normalize that name has been successful. So from no on it’s just Chief Shicago.

6 11 2008
InJuneau

Lt. Governor is in charge of elections, not the Gov.

On a side, tin-foil-hat note, I was talking with someone yesterday who said that reports out of Wainwright (a small village in the North Slope) were showing a handful of votes for each of Stevens and Begich and 80-90 for each of two third party candidates and there was thought that the machines might have been misprogrammed. However, I just checked the results for that district, and they seem to be what we would expect now (90 for Begich, 84 for Stevens, 8 for Bird), so if there were problems, they’ve been fixed and recounted. The problem could come from misprogrammed machines, because the order of the names on the ballots gets rotated so if the programming is worng it would cause the machine to record the vote incorrectly.

6 11 2008
Sparky

Scott Palin (13:31:41)

Sorry, but this whole clothes thing is amost too funny. And then a Mudpuppy in the last thread said something along the line “issue of clothes is unfolding…”

clothes unfolding, hehehehhehe….I can’t help myself. Now a lawyer dispatched to go retrieve some back. Ya think they’re hiding skirts, blouses, suits and hooker shoes in every nook and cranny at the Gov Mansion :-)

oops, Sparky, back to work…

6 11 2008
fawnskin hussein mudpuppy

katiebegood,
i apologized to ennealogic re my “voter fraud” remark. i should know better as i ‘ve worked for the obama voter protection team this election and for voter protection for the nevada bar association in ’04.
i am, as i said, exhausted from my trip to ohio and have severe brain fog.
forgive me.

6 11 2008
Lulu

Katiebegood wrote “The other is when people call us the “Democrat” party. The Republicans have been doing it so long I now notice Democrats doing it.”

I know! It’s as if the adjective disappeared. It’s the DEMOCRATIC PARTY!

All due to a Rush Limbaugh meme, or so I heard. And Bush 43 used it incorrectly for years and years.

6 11 2008
CO Almost Native

Speaking of the Twilight Zone:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/11/06/campaign.computers.hacked/index.html

Hi Shikago-
Glad you had a phenomenal time:)

6 11 2008
Sparky

fawnskin hussein mudpuppy (13:43:21)

no worries, fawnskin, if you need to voice yourself, Mudflats is the place. We are all friends here. And I’m sure most of us are still tired I’m sure. ;-)

6 11 2008
fawnskin hussein mudpuppy

katiebegood,
i apologized to ennealogic re my “voter fraud” remark. i should know better as i ‘ve worked for the obama voter protection team this election and for voter protection for the nevada bar association in ’04.
i am, as i said, exhausted from my trip to ohio and have severe brain fog.
forgive me.

6 11 2008
fawnskin hussein mudpuppy

aw, sparky…thanks

6 11 2008
CO Almost Native

Oops- I got trolled; the link is on a CNN story about both campaigns’ computers being hacked by a foreign govt/org:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/11/06/campaign.computers.hacked/index.html

Hi Shikago- glad it was phenomenal:)

6 11 2008
Sparky

:-)

6 11 2008
Cassie Jeep Pike Palin (Wish I were Trout)

Ennealogic (13:20:33) :
—————————————
You mentioned this while returns were being reported!

Sounds a little screwy to me—-and 60,000 early votes outstanding?

AKM, hope your toes are warm because you’ve more work to do!

6 11 2008
Ennealogic

Fawnskin… *big smile and big hug* … no apology necessary, and I wish my election day story was as moving as yours was.

For what it is worth, in red WV, I was happy to see that my county (where I put most of my efforts) went blue. If only the rest of the folks in the state got edge-u-kay-shun and weren’t so skeered that “that one” would shut down the coal mines.

*sigh*

6 11 2008
End the End Times

By the looks of it when I voted early here in Juneau, our turnout should have been higher than in the past. The lady passing out ballots said it had been busy all day, and I had arrived at a bit of a lull, but then more people started coming in . It seemed like there was more interest to me. The “paper” here said the kiddie vote went to President Obama. Seems like this should all be looked into by someone outside of the State of Alaska, since you mentioned that there were serious questions about the election before AKM.

6 11 2008
BigPete

In Fla we changed to bubble/scanners from touch screen and everybody seems pretty confident……especially confident with the recent results!

6 11 2008
Termo

Our voting system is so messed up. I don’t think it matters if Diebold machines can be hacked because I think they program them however they want…as testified to by this computer programmer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3hUPP_bdOo
Another questionable thing is why would only 39% of people vote for Obama when about 50% are going for Begich…like in Colorado, my state in 2004, where 47% voted for Kerry but 51% for the democratic Senator. It seems like in such a hotly contested election, a person wouldn’t want to support a democratic Senator and not the democratic candidate.

6 11 2008
strangelet

Okay, a small observation about the 2004 spreadsheets. The column labelled “% Turnout” is derived by dividing “Cards Cast” by “Reg Voters”. A few columns to the right is the column “Total Votes”, which contains numbers that are almost exactly 1/2 of those in Cards Cast, and the Total Votes appears to be the sum of the votes recorded for the various candidates.

So, I’m guessing there was a two-card ballot, and the %Turnout somewhat stupidly shows how many cards were turned in per voter. Hence, the actual turnout by precinct would be half the indicated percentage, or 50-60%.

The 200%+ number appears to come from adding up two subtotals that are not independent of each other.
======================================

The lower turnout in 2008 vs 2004 still seems fishy, and the HUGE discrepancy between polling numbers and actual vote is really weird. But I think the funny numbers from 2004 are just do to a stupidly designed spreadsheet.

6 11 2008
White Agate

There is no tin-foil hat needed here, someone did something really odd to those tallies. Time to bring in the lawyers and experts and look at the food chain and who did what when.

I used to live in GA and we had the touch-screen ballot. They do not inspire confidence. Here in MN we use the scan-tron forms, which are not perfect (if it’s humid the forms can jam), but if there is any question you have the paper ballot to go back to. That’s what they are doing with the Coleman-Franken race right now.

It seems suspiciously like someone thought Alaska should always be 65-35, despite the very close polling right before the election. I remember that post and replying, ‘Let’s have some blue tundra this year!’ It seemed possible, and then this split…

…If I were you Alaskans, I’d be PISSED and I’d pursue it to the fullest extent of the law. If the GOP is behind it, this needs to be publicized so that people see what happens and it won’t happen again. Our reputation as a democracy is at stake. My Mom still doesn’t think voter suppression goes on. “They wouldn’t do that, and the Dems are as bad as the Reps.” I told her that ACORN was actually trying to help people vote, not prevent them from doing so.

In the final analysis, I want to see who was not counted. Somehow I think it may be those bluer areas. Sorry, cynical.

6 11 2008
Lee

ShibbyAK:

Keep that tape. I lurk and post here too, and love this site. Alaska is lucky to have this great venue.

6 11 2008
strangelet

Good grief. “due” to

6 11 2008
SoCal Bob

I love the old fashioned paper ballots in CA. I didn’t have any problem voting at all.

6 11 2008
InJuneau

There are still 74,527 early, absentee, and questioned ballots that need to be counted by the State of Alaska, so not to diffuse/derail the Conspiracy Theory Express, but we do still have a lot of ballots to count here.

Absolutely. That’s why this was only a test drive, and a 5-minute tour. Just don’t want it to slip under the radar like it has in the past. We need to be vigilant. AKM

6 11 2008
CO Almost Native

BTW-

This isn’t about the Alaskan vote, but it looks like Obama will carry Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional district (still counting early ballots)! The last time a Dem candidate got electoral votes from the Cornhusker state was in 1964 (LBJ) and I was a sophomore at Westside HS!

And I’m visiting my much loved but very red stepmom in Omaha next week (heehee).

6 11 2008
CO Almost Native

@InJuneau-

Good point. Can we keep the bus idling, or should we send it back to the bus barn?

6 11 2008
strangelet

CO Almost Native (14:12:04) :

Enjoy your trip to Obamaha.

6 11 2008
Crust Scramble - SouthGA

Boy, I take off one day, and y’all have been so busy.

Shikago, I waved to you as I stayed up to the bitter end. Still overwhelmed with awe and gratitude.

AKM, glad your feet didn’t freeze off. Thanks for the update. I’m sending rays of sunshine from Ga. so y’all can disinfect that place and get to the bottom of this obvious election fraud.

6 11 2008
strangelet

Termo (14:00:16) : AK is pretty red. It’s not beyond belief that 60% would vote McCain, but maybe some of those folks just couldn’t vote for ConvicTED.

6 11 2008
Sparky

SoCal Bob (14:08:46) :
I love the old fashioned paper ballots in CA. I didn’t have any problem voting at all.

I agree…I felt like I was back in college, turning in my final exam and having the prof run it throught the scanner. It worked well. Like many on this blog, I went back to the Obama/Biden president/vice president bubble and re-colored it very very carefully.

No one I met at the polling place complained at all!

6 11 2008
CO Almost Native

@strangelet-

LOL!!

Faux News has an article on what’s next for John McCain- my favorite part is John McCain will always be John McCain- Hmmm…does that mean the 2000 version, or the 2008 version?

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/11/06/whats-john-mccain/

6 11 2008
InJuneau

@CO Almost Native (14:13:38) :

Given that I believe Mudpuppies believe in global warming and that at least pasrt of it IS caused by human activities, I think it would be best to pop it back into the bus barn, plug it in to keep the engine warm, and wait till the ballots have been counted.

BTW, I checked the Election website. It shows that 224,057 ballots were voted on Election Day, with a result of 45.2% of registered voters having voted. However, if you add in the 74,527 that haven’t yet been counted, they take us up to 60.2% of registerd voters…

6 11 2008
InJuneau

oops, that should be “part”…

6 11 2008
John Henry

Its simple. They only count the votes from the ‘Real’ parts of Alaska.

6 11 2008
NY Dem

And you wonder how long these possible voting shenanigans have been going on in Alaska. Something just ain’t right. Maybe Sarah’s 90% approval rating was the result of “fixed” numbers too. In fact, if it is proven that some type of fraud is going on with votes in Alaska, how many other elections in the past have been affected ?

Re: Palin elected as Governor ?!?!?

Can’t wait to hear Keith and Rachel and Chris jump on this story.

This might turn out to be bigger than Watergate.

6 11 2008
Dragon Lady

6:19EST – Wolfie on CNN keeps promising an interview with SP who said she loves John McCain. (She also said she and John loved Sarkozy.) I think the story will be she does not love the MSM.

katie and lulu – We are referred to as the Democrat Party just to be the mosquito in the room that keeps you awake all night. I always rejoin, don’t worry; it’s only the Republic Party. They can’t help it.

6 11 2008
Marty (VA) Mudstock DC Inaugural Party.. reply to mudstockdc@hotmail.com

The Ballad of the Alaskan Vote, sung to the theme of The Beverly Hillbillies..

Come and listen to a story about a gal named Sarah
A poor Alaskaneer, barely kept her family fed,
Then one day she was shootin for some votes,
And up and away, the votes became blank notes.

Votes, that is, Palin votes, Alaskan lies

Well, the first thing ya know, ole Teddy’s up by a million.
Kinfolk said “Ted, move them votes from here
Said, “Alaskan election office is the place you wanna be”

So, they loaded up the votes and moves to Wasilliy.

Wasilly, that is, Ice Rinks, moose, Palin stars.

Well now it’s time to say good by to Sarah and her kin.
And they’d like to thank ya suckers fer votin more than once.
You’re all invited back a gain to vote for Ted.

To have a heapin helpin of their mooseitality
Wasilly Hillybilly that is. Set a spell, watch your votes go off
Don’t bother ever comin back now, ya hear???

6 11 2008
Packy

I’m not much of a conspiracy theorist either, but this is very strange.

I’m hope you and Shannyn Moore have already shared these observations with both Begich & Berkowitz (although I’m guessing they’re already all over it).

6 11 2008
BigSlick THAT ONE Hussein Clamp Noodle Palin

It looks to me like they are simply counting republican votes twice.

Simple cheats for simple minds.

6 11 2008
Dragon Lady

Palin denies all allegations per Wolfie at 6:32 – NAFTA, etc.

6 11 2008
amy

@marty
LMAO…..omg……too funny

6 11 2008
Dragon Lady

AKM – Tuchman’s interview at the airport with SP shows the peeples in the back – hoped to see you but no one looks sick at their stomach.

6 11 2008
nebraskanative

Oh my… this just gets muckier and muckier. Sarah continues to run true to form… and now we have interesting stats from AK. Glad people are keeping watch…

6 11 2008
Goalie Sanka Palin in NM

I hate to be so speculative and all considering the ramifications of possible election fraud; but, that being said…I believe it is entirely possible for a faction of the repugs to be entirely in the tank for Stevens. He has the influence, power, resources and most probably the “dirt” on individuals who just might be indebted in some sort of way.

If Nate Silver is all over it; he will have his voice. AKM you should provide this information to him if you haven’t already. You have been very thorough in spelling out the sequence and the numbers.

Just thinking out loud.

6 11 2008
nebraskanative

YEAH!!! My penguin picture… how on earth did that show up? WordPress is a strange and wonderful place!

6 11 2008
enjay AKA Turbine Yukon

Wow — that is interesting

Would venture to guess its statistically impossible for that many votes to virtually remain EVEN during the count process.

6 11 2008
nebraskanative

Now my posts are going somewhere else… but if this shows up, it’s a penguin about to bag/clap cymbols while standing on a polar bear, it is called “Brave Penguin” I just knew you secretly wanted to know what that picture was…

6 11 2008
Dragon Lady

katiebegood and lulu = When the Republic party calls us the Democrat Party they’re acknowledging our intelligence.

The joke goes over the heads of their base. As I was once told: Them Democrats is Evil Peoples.

Or as Todd Palin replied to Greta, re First Dude or his first name:
“Todd works good.”
I felt kinda sorry for him doncha know.
Also.

6 11 2008
AKMama

I’m glad I’m not the only one that finds our election results fishy, especially now that I hear that the voter turnout was supposedly lower this year than in ’04.

Let’s keep pressure on both parties to get to the bottom of this.

6 11 2008
fawnskin hussein mudpuppy

hey, nebraskanative

i used to have that as my desktop pic.
gotta love it

6 11 2008
nebraskanative

ABC news is crucifying Sarah… one thing after another…

6 11 2008
nocalgal

Glad to know you are on the case AKM.. and Nate SIlver at 538 supports your findings too.. Given that he was SPOT ON on this election, given that the numbers do reflect something odd.. I hope there is an investigation.

on a side note- some GREAT Photos of Obama during the campaign.

boston.com/bigpicture/2008/11/the_next_president_of_the_unit.html

6 11 2008
nebraskanative

Great minds!!! Why of course!

6 11 2008
Aeroentropy

Nebraskanative -

I recognize your penguin! How does it get there??

6 11 2008
CO Almost Native

@InJuneau-

Got it. Over the river, and through the woods, back to the barn we go….:)

6 11 2008
nebraskanative

It was from an old blog I had on wordpress… I have no idea why it’s showing up, my avatars seem to change at will…

6 11 2008
ValleyResident

I’m submitting this article to CNN. Hopefully, they will investigate and make it nationally known.

6 11 2008
CO Almost Native

@Marty-

Bravo! I think Nebraskanative’s penguin is clapping the cymbals for your song:)

6 11 2008
portland oregon native

Something really stinks in the 2008 Alaska returns and I don’t think it’s seal blubber.
I hope you all can find out the real story.
Good luck!

6 11 2008
Dragon Lady

nebraska – what did ABC say? I was watching CNN and missed MSNBC, now ABC.

Cheers and Applause for AKM’s reportage on SP’s slouching back to Alaska in high heels wearing all the clothes she bought under that coat.

Everyone hear she left AZ with an entourage in a motorcade flanked by motorcyle cops?

I still say she is going to crash and burn. AK election fraud would be so nice for her Image. Maybe Todd made a few phone calls.

6 11 2008
Palli from Ohio

An Ohio citizen activist sends you Alaskans courage, perserverance and good eyesight to spot the sleight of hand. May your election be the straw that breaks the camel’s back of our nation’s voter election fraud denial.
…Let America be America again, the land that never has been but must be…

6 11 2008
sauerkraut aka Road Apple Palin

Couple of things about polls and voting percentages.

Never trust polls. As with sports, contests must run to their own conclusions – meaning that as with baseball, it’s not the chatter which counts but the game that is played. I am firmly convinced that people will say whatever they think needs to be said at a certain moment all the while intending to something different at the ballot box. I have neighbors like that and found more people like that as I canvassed during the 3-4 days prior to the election. People who had indicated a preference for Obama during phone surveys would slam the door in our faces during the canvass. Why some people are like that we will never know. But Obama did win in an election in which 133 millions, a record, voted.

As to voting percentages, I saw a nice article this morning in a newspaper about how this year’s percentages still do not compare to the 1960 or 1964 elections. The numbers you see most often represent an average across the country. Locally, the percentages fluctuated by quite a bit. In some parts of pennsyltucky, just over 50% voted locally, while in other parts that figure approached 80%. But PA as a whole only had 67% of the registered voters casting ballots.

My own observations at a polling station with a higher number leads me to conclude that fewer older white folks voted while younger folks of all types did not miss this opportunity to participate. How that all relates to what went on in Alaska I don’t know. Just thought I’d add my 2 cents worth.

6 11 2008
Sparky

nebraskanative (14:37:22)

I hope we’re not going to hear McGrumpy cackle each time your lovely penquin appears.

6 11 2008
mhrt oregon"steve"

nebraskanative (14:42:57)
———————
cute picture

6 11 2008
Proud Community OrganizerWA

Wow with all this muck I think will all are going to need hip waders!

6 11 2008
Proud Community OrganizerWA

oops should have we all are going to need hip waders! holding baby and typing one handed! lol

6 11 2008
Bones

There IS NO WAY I believe that there was a lower voter turn out this year!

6 11 2008
sauerkraut aka Road Apple Palin

formerAKperson (13:37:14) :

I urge Alaskans to, please, put her out of our misery. Please.

By whatever “legal” means necesssary.
_______________

Since the original statement contained an implied threat in the last sentence, I edited it for appropriateness.

6 11 2008
InJuneau

As I posted above:

BTW, I checked the Election website. It shows that 224,057 ballots were voted on Election Day, with a result of 45.2% of registered voters having voted. However, if you add in the 74,527 that haven’t yet been counted, they take us up to 60.2% of registered voters…

6 11 2008
Rapture Spenard Palin

Todd was Sarah’s first witchcraft experiment. She’s been working on the perfect love potion for 30 years (it’s okay to be a witch if you are a Christian witch). But she dumped in too many loyal puppy dog tails in the first batch, and braindead teenage Todd became eternally enamored. She toned down the puppy dog tails before dumping a batch in the water supply for the dairy. After milk drinkers elected her mayor, she added chopped Jedi and fresh air before dumping her potion in the Anchorage water supply (she even dumped it in the water supply for Alaskan breweries). After her successful election as governor she sent her brew to Wal-Mart for distribution in liquid food products. That was her fatal mistake. When she hit the national stage, she didn’t realize that a bunch of damn liberals didn’t shop at Wal-Mart (darned commie socialist anti-american jerks). When she winked, all the people under her spell began to make robocalls (those weren’t recordings, they were Palin zombies) and eat their democrat neighbors in the dead of night, leaving only blue bones. But all the people who didn’t drink the brew (or breathe the piped in air at her rallies, with the aerosol version of her potion) just looked at her like she was growing long hair out of her nose. Then a pack of wolves who had read Watership Downs and seen The Secret of NIMH sneaked into Sarah’s laboratory and switched her potion to children’s liquid benedryl, which put all the zombies to sleep and they forgot to vote. On her way home from Arizona, Sarah made the plane stop in Seattle so that she could stock up on puppy dog tails and freezed-dried Jedi. Those meth labs in Wasilla?….those are just undercover Sarah labs pumping out elixir2012.
Sleep well my pretties.

6 11 2008
behindthefall

Down here in the southern 48 we hear that you up there are next to some other countries.. We hear that you can even see some of them. Was it from your State Capital? Anyway, when you next have an election, why don’t you invite people from those other countries to come in and watch. Maybe they’d see things going on and could give a few hints on how to tidy up the process. I bet their suggestions would be very, very different, but wouldn’t that be part of the fun?

6 11 2008
Ripley in CT

Ok, First things first.

fawnskin hussein mudpuppy (13:19:09) : Hon, you need to get a life~!!!! LOL

Second. Perhaps Alaska has already put in the Secession Paperwork. They can’t very well have any new people in there to muck up the works, can they?

6 11 2008
Alaska_Phil

I brought this up with my son whom just happens to work in broadcast media in Alaska. I asked him if anyone was looking into the fact that record numbers of voters turned out across America yet in Alaska the count is down.
From CNN election results for 2004:
Bush 190,889 61%
Kerry 111,025 36%
Total votes in Alaska for 2004 = 293,095
In 2008:
McCain 136,348 62%
Obama 80,340 36%
Alaska 2008 Total = 216,688

My son is not in a position to do anything about this but he said if someone else should start commenting about this he would see if his station could do a piece on it. The really strange thing to my eyes are the voter percentages. 61 and 36 percent in 2004, 62 and 36 percent in 2008. So who do we need to contact to see how this is happening?

Now we know why Dung never worries about his re-election to the Congress. He already knows he’s going to win.

We need to make some noise about this.

6 11 2008
Mainlander

keep up the good work!

6 11 2008
eajphd Wolves Run Free

In reporting on the clothes purchases, the sources stated they were paid for by a wealthy donor who was shocked on receiving the bill.

Imagine the script:

Scene 1 the McCain Campaign office

Cindy speaking to staff person, “Quick do something about this woman. She’s a fashion horror show. Take her out to Neiman Marcus or Saks to get her and the family into some respectable clothes for the convention and campaign tour . I’l cover it with a (tax deductible) donation to the party.”

Aide: “Yes ma’am.”

Scene 2 the Palin Hotel suite

Sarah: “Todd, we just won an all expense paid fashion shopping spree for the family.”

Todd: “Great, did they say if we could buy accessories, like a new set of treads for my snow machine?”

Scene 3 The McCain Living room

Cindy looking at American Express bill: “what the f@#&? That stupid little moose skinner. John, we’re definitely doing that SNL routine. I hope Tina Fey really sticks it to her.”

6 11 2008
Miemaw from Texas

I was just reading Daily Kos. Something’s also strange in the voting in Georgia.

Seems they may not have counted several hundred thousand votes.

Many, many new voters registered. More than is reflected in the tallies coming out of the SOS office.

Totally off topic.

The Republican Party is sending a lawyer after Palin’s clothes.

Ha!

6 11 2008
nebraskanative

No cackles… the penguin is waking the sleeping giant that is good and right with our adopted state of AK… only good things will result… I just made that up, but I am stickin’ with that story also. And http://www.newsweek.com is running an interesting series about the election, I printed it off, but apparently Chapter 7 is in the magazine only and I can’t find a copy, so if someone did find a copy, please share Chapter 7.

And my favorite headline from HuffPo 23/6: “Sarah headed back to that state of which she is that governor of” It sounds so very Palinese, doesn’t it?

And the ABC coverage talked about her gaffes, the $pending of the Wasilla hillbillies and the non-vetting of which we also participated in and.

6 11 2008
mhrt oregon"steve"

new post

6 11 2008
sauerkraut aka Road Apple Palin

Lou Dobbs on CNN is about to do a segment on voter numbers. Let’s see what this neocon has to say about that. Will he include anything about Alaska?

6 11 2008
0whole1

A bit off-topic:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/11/06/palin-gets-warm-welcome-home/

Poll: The crustacean shown on the Governor’s coffee table in the above link
a) a pet
b) dinner
c) an Alaskan cockroach
d) a wall ornament
e) an intern
f) all of the above

6 11 2008
mhrt oregon"steve"

new post about palinese

6 11 2008
NMJ

I just red-flagged this to KO and Rachel on MSNBC.

6 11 2008
sauerkraut aka Road Apple Palin

nebraska – it would be kinda cool if wordpress included sounds with the avatars; AOL does this on some versions (although I have to admit it got annoying so I turned it off).

6 11 2008
califpat

Hey Nebraskanative:
MSNBC is cracking SWWNBN face too. They are being relentless. Teehee!

6 11 2008
mvngfwd

marty- Again, your wit astonishes! ;)

6 11 2008
One Utah » Blog Archive » Very Strange Numbers in Ted Stevens Race

[...] Mud-Flats, Crunching the Numbers in Alaska In 2004, 66% of registered voters turned out to vote in the presidential election between George [...]

6 11 2008
mhrt oregon"steve"

alert post above

6 11 2008
InJuneau

@0whole1 (15:28:24) :

Oh come one, haven’t you been watching “Deadliest Catch”? That be dinner my friend, that be dinner!

6 11 2008
Ennealogic

I’ve read recently about why we should not trust exit polls. Now, remember, please, that the way the international community judges whether or not an election is valid (that is, not stolen) is by comparing exit polls to actual results.

The only reason I’ve seen given, consistently, for us to not trust exit polls, is that those polls were apparently wrong in Ohio, in 2004. At least, that’s what 538 is saying.

Think about that for a minute. The gold standard for determining whether Yugoslavia’s elections are fair cannot be applied to the United States because things didn’t go quite the way they should’ve in one of our previous elections.

Think about that again. And ponder.

I’m not buying it.

6 11 2008
karen marie

thanks for following this, AKmuckraker.

i’ll be looking forward to updates.

i’m collecting a “file” of stories about voting issues to see where it goes. i’d like to participate somehow in getting this country a better way of running elections.

6 11 2008
Lauren

Thanks for bringing this to light. These anomalies are clear evidence that something has skewed the results. I urge those of your in Alaska to organize some election integrity groups watchdog groups and DEMAND a recount of all the 2008 results.

Also, contact the Obama campaign’s lawyers and some national election integrity organizations to increase awareness about this and turn the heat up. As we all know now, your sociopathic governor can be counted on to run ram shot over ethical constraints and go to any length to get what she wants.

I recommend contacting Greg Palast at http:// http://www.gregpalast.com Also: http://www.nomorestolenelections.org/focus/voting_machines
http://www.fairvote.org
http://libertytreefdr.org
http://stealbackyourvote.org

6 11 2008
iona

It must be investigated. And so must GA if the results are this skewed.

6 11 2008
NMJ

Also red-flagged to Hardball.

6 11 2008
DL Landry

27% ish of the vote is uncounted. If there is a 10% Dem advantage in these votes then the McCain v. Obama race comes into the 15 point win for McCain that Five Thirty Eight was predicting. This would also equal a win for Begich. Begich did well in rural Alaska bucking the historical support for Stevens. Begich beats Stevens in districts 40 through 37 which is coastal Alaska from the Arctic Slope down through the Aleutians. Begich has Stevens by about 2 to 1 in the Bethel area. It’ll be interesting to see what happens. Good luck to all the poll watchers from the Begich and Berkowitz camps. Thanks for your good work and time.

6 11 2008
Ishtar (Icepick Motor Palin)

The voting system is so broken in this country that as the election was nearing and polls seemed to point to an Obama victory, I had to calm my fears of a generalized Florida 2000, Ohio 2004 by telling myself again and again: No, they can’t steal every state in play.

6 11 2008
AlaskaGuy

Alaska! We’re so nice we vote twice!

6 11 2008
Redgoddes In Juneau

AKM, thanks for bringing this up. As I was watching the returns on election night and my friends were becoming discouraged about the Begich/Stevens and Berkowitz/Young races, I just kept saying that it must be that the blue precincts had not been counted. I agree something seems odd here, even for Alaska.

6 11 2008
szn46

“Send money, guns and lawyers!

(Warren Zevon song)

6 11 2008
Northern Exposure

Shame on me for trying to get back to my own life a bit and missing so many posts that really interest me here. AKM, glad you are still on a roll. And I promise to catch up with posts and comments I have missed. Here are the election results from Cecily. A couple hundred less folks voted in the general election than voted in the most recent local election.

Report from Cecily:
Obama 46%
McCain 54%

Begich and Berkowitz both victorious in Cecily.

That being said, I am a bit surprised at the statewide vote and am interested in a breakdown of where what votes were coming from.

Interesting voter registration observations. I always wondered why the percentage of actual voters never was more than 50% or so in Cecily. Who are all those people not bothering to vote. So we got the registration list. There are as many (or more) names on the list as there is population in Cecily (men, women, and children)–which means about a thousand or so can’t possibly be registered adults. What I found. Some people deceased for many years. Some people moved away for many years. And some people just don’t know and don’t seem to be listed in the phone book. Understandably there are lots of cell-phones around these here parts and also maybe some people with no phones. And lots of students who probably registered at 18 and moved away. Just wondering who and how these lists might get cleaned up a bit. I wouldn’t want to see pre-election purges near an important election date–but somewhere along the line, the lists really should be more reliable. There also seemed to be some duplications where some people changed their party–and their names showed up on the N list one time and also on the U list. And I know of at least one person who claims to be registered in both Cecily and Juneau and votes wherever he happens to be at the time of whatever election may come up.

The party sent us a list to call for GOTV efforts. However, the number of folks on the list was only about 20-30% of total number of people who generally vote. Again the list included deceased folks, moved folks, and folks of the other party that really probably should not have been on this list (because I know them and they told me who they were supporting).

Since this is an older thread, I’ll repeat the post in the forum somewhere.

6 11 2008
mustang

“With 36% of the precincts reporting:
61.76% for McCain
35.64% for Obama

With 81.3% reporting
61.54% for McCain
35.69% for Obama

With 96.1% reporting
61.29% for McCain
35.96% for Obama”

I WATCHED THE EXACT SAME NUMBERS SHOWING UP IN COLORADO ELECTION NIGHT…made #s of comments about it by phone.
I was convinced they were running some ‘program’ for votes….
Now I see it wasnt just colorado…

the #s ran nearly exactly like this in some other states I watched also…

There is def something here concerning these #s…
anyone got a state by state on this?

6 11 2008
mhrt oregon"steve"

do you guys know that akm has palinese above

6 11 2008
Jenn

Alaska……..the new Florida.

6 11 2008
Celeste from Obama Country

I am watching Rachel Maddow and she is interviewing Nate Silver from fivethirtyeight.com. He is also saying somethin smells fishy! Your inner conspiracy theorist may be right!

6 11 2008
Pacificnwgal

It does not seem right that ALL the polls are wrong. They weren’t wrong for Obama. Beacause there were so many new voters, I suppose they are verifying authenticity of the votes. But, that does not explain why there are so many less voters than in 2004. It should be higher. I sure wouldn’t leave it up the your GOVERNOR!!!!!! Wow, what a nightmare!

6 11 2008
PJ

Keep her, please!

6 11 2008
kenailake

I read with interest your previous post about what went wrong in the Congressional races and just didn’t have time then to write: add one more…election tampering. Glad to see your most recent post. This is right-on. I wrote to Nate Silver early this morning asking about Alaska. Interestingly, 538 was a fraction of a percentage point in calling the presidential; Rasmussen and Pew were within 1 point, yet in Alaska they were all three “wrong” by 10-20 points due to this so-called Alaska Bradley effect. In 2004 we were told the exit polls were wrong, in ’08 it’s the voter polls. It’s beyond fishy and the only conspiracy is the one to commit fraud.

6 11 2008
kenailake

And lest we forget who is the head of Division of Elections…the Lt. Gov. ahem.

6 11 2008
szn46

Hello Mudpuppies,
There is a very nice explanation written by the Celtic Diva on OpEdnews about a possible explanation for the AK vote results! (I still think it smells like dead humpies on the beach, though)

http://www.opednews.com/articles/Stolen-election-in-Alaska-by-Linda-Celtic-Diva-081106-6.html

6 11 2008
Juneau girl

Mustang – “With 36% of the precincts reporting:
61.76% for McCain
35.64% for Obama

With 81.3% reporting
61.54% for McCain
35.69% for Obama

With 96.1% reporting
61.29% for McCain
35.96% for Obama”

I WATCHED THE EXACT SAME NUMBERS SHOWING UP IN COLORADO

That’s just wierd. Serious election fraud in any state is a bit mind boggling. More than one? Is someone looking into Colorado?

As for Alaska, that so many poll numbers from all three races should be so far off is also wierd. I want to see the numbers from each precinct. We all know that Alaska should have a serious mix of red and blue areas. How do we get the break-out?

6 11 2008
esther

I voted early in Seward, my first time, and the whole process struck me as very odd. I don’t understand why, after filling out my ballot, and placing it in a “privacy sleeve”, I then had to put it in an envelope that had my party affiliation (democrat) written right on it. I asked the poll worker if I had to fill in that section of the enveloped, and she told me yes, that all sections must be filled out. What is to keep election officials from “losing” the envelopes marked democrat?

6 11 2008
byflugur

Dictionary: conspiracy theory

n.
A theory seeking to explain a disputed case or matter as a plot by a secret group or alliance rather than an individual or isolated act.

this used to be called “Investigative Journalism”– why the apology?

6 11 2008
whatthe?

Dictionary: conspiracy theory, n.
A theory seeking to explain a disputed case or matter as a plot by a secret group or alliance rather than an individual or isolated act.

this used to be called “Investigative Journalism”– why the apology?

6 11 2008
SamON

Were all the problems the imagination of “conspiracy theory” in 2004 and 2006?

Alaska Dems File Lawsuit to get at State’s Diebold’s 2004 Election Data!
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=2709

By your very own Shannyn Moore
[snip]
“In 2006, the Democrats filed a lawsuit against the Alaska Division of Elections to release public records needed to verify the 2004 election results after turnout totals of more than 200% were noticed in some Alaskan counties. The Democrats won the lawsuit for the release of the data revealing how voters had actually voted in 2004, over Diebold’s objections and the allowance for the company to “manipulate the data” (their words!) before it would be released. The state then actually invoked a “national security” assertion in trying to avoid releasing the data.”
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=6644#more-6644

I think it’s time to stop calling anyone who has questions a “conspiracy theorist”. If the election integrity folks had not being ridiculed and called nutters by some supposedly “progressive blogs” for years maybe this mess would have been fixed before 06 and 08.

To quote Gore Vidal
‘Conspiracy stuff’ is now shorthand for unspeakable truth.

6 11 2008
Very Strange Voting in Alaska | The Ruth Group

[...] As these strange numbers rolled in at Election Central, I was there watching. Here’s how it fell out over time. [...]

6 11 2008
SamON

Yes sunshine is the best disinfectant. Research some of the election integrity sites. They have been trying to get the word out since 04 and even earlier, that electronic voting, scanning machines can be and are manipulated. Even provisional ballots don’t get counted unless the race is close, same with absentee ballots. So maybe you vote but it’s not even counted.
I am not even from your Country but I could not believe in 2004 that any sane US person would vote for bush again. After four years of reading, VotersUnite.org Bradblog.com, blackboxvoting.org etc. I was convinced that bush was NOT legally elected and he wasn’t. He was selected by Diebold/Premier and other electronic voting machines.
As you may notice :-) I get very annoyed with this conspiracy theorist label penned on people who have researched and found out that electronic voting is not reliable.
I’ll shut up now and go away.

6 11 2008
Marnie

I was born in and spent most of my 63 years in Texas. For the whole of that time, as far back as I can remember, the Republicans whined and cried that the Democrats cheated on elections.
Actually, that is quite true, but they cheated each other as much or more than they cheated the Republicans. It’s the Ol’ Boyuh thang to do.
Bush got his first term as governor by defeating an incumbant, Ann Richards, who had a 60% popularity rating. The current governor of Texas Rick Perry just got reelected, I think last year, (I’m an expat. Texan now) with a 30% popularity rating.

The Repugs have taken cheating democracy and the American Citizens to new heights.

I just hope the new Congress has the balls to address these types of problems and act.

6 11 2008
bluebanshee

@Miemaw from Texas (15:21:34) :

Both Georgia and Alaska vote on Premier (formerly known as Diebold) equipment. Just a coincidence? I think not.

Also there were discrepancies in the 2004 count in AK — and the Alaska Democratic Party filed a lawsuit to get access to the data files of the election results. As far as I know the court ruled against the Dems because the Diebold file formats were found to be proprietary and a corporate trade secret.

6 11 2008
alaskafireweed honeyinabucket

Just my spidey sense tingling- but here in Homer I early voted, no machines here at all-the clerk just put the paperwork and ballots in a manila envelope to be mailed at some point down to Juneau (she said) where they would be counted.
Homer didn’t have voter rolls available she said. She told some voters that the votes wouldn’t be counted until 10 days after the election, some voters were told they were counted right away. My husband voted in Cordova early, where he was told that as long as you vote at least 4 days before the election the vote is counted immediately. The Homer Clerk of Court also said that only 3 cities had early voting-Anchorage, Fairbanks and Homer, when a voter questioned the difference between Soldotna’s voting and Homer’s. (As I stare at my 8X10 glossy mailer listing 15 early voting sites across the state.)
So, I dunno…..I firstly don’t ken to the idea that we don’t have one story for all and we stick to it. The inference that Cordova can somehow pull off the vote counting but Homer can’t just fuddles my mind. No dis to Cordova intended!
This has been on my mind, as well as a few others here and I just wanted to vent–also glad the discussion is happening. thanks.

6 11 2008
LaNon

Deep Blue in VA (13:32:53) :
Nate Silver at 538 is on this too. I just hope some Obama lawyers get on the scene!
———————
A very key point. i like how McCain’s margin of victory is constant. Wow, I wonder if some friend of, you know, of the family, pitched in to help Alaskans with election software. Obvious monkeying around is obvious. Next steps required.

Nice work up there in the upper one everybody.

6 11 2008
Kona Morris

Thank you so much. You make many enlightening points and I hope this article gets some sunshine spotlights from the media soon. Democracy can work if we put in the energy and don’t lose our integrity.

Cheers to getting to the bottom of this,

-Kona

7 11 2008
Something is rotten in the state of Alaska | England for Obama

[...] And something’s not quite right. [...]

7 11 2008
demright

Get Sarah to look into it. See what kind of job she does. Remember Kate Harris from Fl. Remember what happened to her political carrier with a botched election under her belt.

7 11 2008
Francis Sedgemore - Mapping the political change in America

[...] There is talk of suspicious voting patterns in Alaska (also discussed here). [...]

7 11 2008
William

One theory is that people already knew the results by 7 pm.

But Alaskans turned out in record numbers during Reagan’s 1984 landslide, when the result was known as soon as the first polls closed back East. 200,384 voters compared to 127,954 in 1980. Turnout in Alaska also increased in 1972, the year of Nixon’s landslide, and in 1964, the year of Johnson’s Democratic landslide. So why would folks show up in record numbers for landslide elections but not this year? (As impressive as Obama’s success was, it was still nowhere near those overwhelming victories. Reagan won every state but one. And all of the winners had over 500 electoral votes.)

Furthermore, why would energized Alaskan Democrats who had a chance to win a crucial Senate seat and another seat in the House suddenly decide to stay home?

When the rest of the country had the highest turnout in 100 years. And Alaska had increased turnout during the primaries. And 20,000 new voters.

7 11 2008
gizmotastic

When I first saw the numbers from Alaska I was a little curious. I’m sure there is a whole ‘nuther story to it and Sarah will “get back” to us on it.

7 11 2008
davidjoseph

I hope those of you in Alaska stay on this and get to the bottom of it.

7 11 2008
thoughtbasket

i don’t like the sound of that at all. Is Alaska known for voting hijinks?

7 11 2008
john

cool!

7 11 2008
End the End Times

@ Marty–(way up there) Perfecto.

After reading all of this, I’m thinking this is worse than I thought. This needs to be taken over by outside authorities who can be trusted. How high in the court system did this go before?

I voted early in Juneau and my ballot went into a box. It’s hard to believe that with all of the younger voters and new voters (and new people taking part in the election drive), that more of the vote didn’t go to Obama. It just seems to make sense that the voter turnout should have been higher this year. We didn’t have a snow storm yet this year. (In Juneau) That said, if we all have to vote again, I would crawl on my hands and knees through the snow if I thought that the system was being watched over (and was fixed if needed) and the real truth had to be found.

This is why I was hoping Obama could have shown up in Alaska. I think the numbers of people who would turn out would speak quite well.

8 11 2008
Tim Roll-Pickering

As someone from another country I can’t comment on the details of Alaskan voting but one key point on opinion polling stands out.

Opinion polling is not a precise science. It is particularly prone to errors if the sample weightings fail to keep up with demographic realities. It also fails if it over relies on particular methods of contacting voters – for example in past decades landline ownership was disporportionately concentrated in the richers classes; more recently many young people and those who frequently move addresses don’t bother (I only have a landline myself for the internet). And of course there are attempts to compensate for this that affect the sampling.

But there’s also the extent to which voters for particular individuals and parties are willing to admit it, even to exit pollsters. Here in the UK there was a long period when it was distinctly unfashionable to admit to voting for the Conservative Party – see the Wikipedia article “Shy Tory Factor” for details on this. Or in Northern Ireland opinion polls frequently give results far more favourable to moderate parties vs hardline ones than the election results (even when taking the various voting systems into account).

In the 1992 general election opinion polls and exit polls predicted a Labour lead of 1% and a hung parliament. The actual result was a Conservative lead of 7.6%. Next to nobody made accusations of rigged or stolen elections. Instead the polling companies realised their methodology was failing to pick up a crucial factor.

Then there’s the method used to conduct the poll. Here in the UK the internet based YouGov have often had more accurate results for the Conservatives than polling done over the phone or approaching voters in the street. Is this because it’s easier to admit to a website than to human being how one is voting?

I also suspect that opinion polls for international election observers to test outcomes probably have far more resources and expensive number crunching to get accurate results than the run-of-the-mill polls produced for a very limited lifespan of allowing the media to predict and/or report “the result” on a get-it-first basis that doesn’t matter a few days later. (Here political parties will commission their own private opinion polls, often getting somewhat different results from the publicly produced ones, for much the same reason.)

8 11 2008
The 2008 presidential race is over, but several Senate races still remain undecided. Georgia is headed for a runoff, Minnesota for a recount — and in Alaska things just keep getting stranger. « THE INTERNET POST

[...] on Election Day, and the state’s own governor being on the ballot, all of which had led to an expectation of record [...]

8 11 2008
The Presidency Has at Last Been Desegregated « O U T to L A U N C H

[...] Alaska, a post written by Shannyn Moore for The Brad Blog. Verrry interesting. I subsequently found Crunching the Numbers in Alaska, a post at Mudflats, a blog maintained by “AKMuckraker”; and today this was at Mudflats: More [...]

10 11 2008
at The Head On Radio Network

[...] on Election Day, and the state’s own governor being on the ballot, all of which had led to an expectation of record [...]




Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 190 other followers

%d bloggers like this: